湖北省土地利用结构变化及其驱动机制分析

采用1996～2004年的统计资料,分析了湖北省土地利用结构变化,研究发现全省耕地大幅度减少,其次是未利用地和牧草地;林地则迅速增加,其次为居民点及独立工矿、园地、其他农用地、交通用地和水利设施用地。随后运用典型相关分析法,以湖北省76个县级行政单位为研究单元,进一步对湖北省土地利用结构变化的驱动因子进行了统计分析,定量诊断出各驱动因子对湖北省土地利用结构变化贡献作用的大小。结果显示,湖北省土地利用结构与社会经济因素之间关系可以用4对典型相关变量表示,耕地、居民点及工矿用地、林地、交通用地、水利设施用地的发展变化分别对应于不同的社会经济驱动因子。     

滇池河流氮入湖负荷时空变化及形态组成贡献

为给进一步实施滇池入湖污染控制及小流域污染治理提供依据,以滇池环湖28条河流入湖水量及水体中不同形态氮的质量浓度逐月调查数据为基础,研究了滇池河流不同形态氮的入湖浓度(ρ)和入湖负荷的时空变化,并探讨了不同形态氮的入湖负荷贡献. 结果表明:①滇池河流入湖ρ(TN)在2.91～94.01 mg/L之间,以ρ(DIN)(DIN为溶解性无机氮)最高,而ρ(DON)(DON为溶解性有机氮)和ρ(PN)(PN为颗粒态氮)均较低. ②滇池河流氮入湖负荷总量为6 908.47 t/a,绝大多数河流以DIN负荷为主,平均贡献为67.15%;DON和PN入湖负荷贡献相近,平均分别为17.86%和14.99%. ③不同形态氮入湖负荷贡献的季节性差异明显,DIN入湖负荷较高值出现在春夏季(3—9月),平均贡献达74.01%;DON入湖负荷较高值则出现在秋冬季(9月—翌年1月),平均贡献达33.42%;PN入湖负荷贡献月份变化差异较小,最高值出现在2月,贡献为40.19%. ④滇池河流氮入湖负荷不仅要考虑DIN的贡献,也应重视DON和PN负荷,控制滇池河流氮入湖负荷需要考虑不同河流不同形态氮负荷组成及其季节性差异,有针对性地采取相应措施.      

Environmental change,development and vectorborne disease: Malaysia’s experience with filariasis,scrub typhus and dengue

During Malaysia’s rapid economic development into becoming a middle income country in the past several decades, environmental changes resulted in altered land use patterns because of agricultural practices such as large scale rice, rubber and oil palm cultivation. The impact of environmental changes brought about by rice and rubber cultivation affected the breeding habitats of mosquito vectors which in turn affected the prevalence of two strains of lymphatic filariasis in different ways. With scrub typhus, the development of oil palm plantations affected the ecology of mite and rodent populations which resulted in very high incidence of the disease in affected populations. Malaysia’s relentless urbanization has resulted in increased incidence of dengue, as peridomestic mosquito vectors increasingly colonize urban habitats. This article discusses how ecological factors determine the way lymphatic filariasis, scrub typhus and dengue were spread in Malaysia. The nation’s experience with environmental changes due to rapid development provides lessons for other developing countries in control programs and public health policy.     

基于遥感与GIS的土地利用动态变化研究

土地是人类社会经济活动的载体；土地利用是指人类对作为生产生活资料的土地的利用方式和强度；而土地利用动态变化则反映了土地利用方式的发展变化趋势。土地利用动态变化在数量，方式，强度，结构和趋势等方面存在很大的差异。全面，客观地反映土地利用动态变化有利于正确认识当前土地利用中合理和不合理的利用方式，为制定长期，可持续发展的土地管理和土地规划提供依据。遥感技术提供巨大而丰富的信息源，GIS技术具有强大的数据处理，空间分析等功能，二者的结合有着传统方式无法比拟的优越性，具有周期短，效率高，费用低等特点，在土地利用变化监测中发挥着巨大的作用。制定详细的技术手段，对重庆市15年间的土地利用及其动态变化在时间序列和空间序列上加以分析，阐明这种变化的外在表象，即耕地，林地的减少和城镇用地的增加；同时分析这种变化的内在驱动力主要为自然环境（坡度，高程，土壤等）和人文要素（经济条件与人口压力等）。为国土资源的有效可持续利用提供决策依据。     

Use of Descriptors of Ecosystem Functioning for Monitoring a National Park Network: A Remote Sensing Approach

Baseline assessments and monitoring of protected areas are essential for making management decisions, evaluating the effectiveness of management practices, and tracking the effects of global changes. For these purposes, the analysis of functional attributes of ecosystems (i.e., different aspects of the exchange of matter and energy) has advantages over the traditional use of structural attributes, like a quicker response to disturbances and the fact that they are easily monitored through remote sensing. In this study, we described the spatiotemporal patterns of different aspects of the ecosystem functioning of the Spanish national parks and their response to environmental changes between 1982 and 2006. To do so, we used the NOAA/AVHRR-GIMMS dataset of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a linear estimator of the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation intercepted by vegetation, which is the main control of carbon gains. Nearly all parks have significantly changed during the last 25 years: The radiation interception has increased, the contrast between the growing and nongrowing seasons has diminished, and the dates of maximum and minimum interception have advanced. Some parks concentrated more changes than others and the degree of change varied depending on their different environmental conditions, management, and conservation histories. Our approach identified reference conditions and temporal changes for different aspects of ecosystem functioning, which can be used for management purposes of protected areas in response to global changes.     

Climate changes in the past century and radial increment of pine in the Southern Ural steppe

Changes in the main climatic factors (air temperature and total precipitation) and their effect on the radial increment of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) over the period from 1933 to 2002 were studied in an insular pine forest growing in the steppe zone of the Southern Urals. Evidence for a significant increase in the amount of precipitation and air temperature in the second half of this period was obtained. Functions of response of radial increment indices to climatic parameters were analyzed. Relative contributions of air temperature and precipitation to variation in the radial increment of pine in different time intervals proved to differ in relation to climate changes during the past century.     

山东潍坊紫外线辐射特征及影响因素

近10多年来,随着人类居住环境的恶化,紫外线给人类造成了巨大的伤害。利用潍坊市气象台2004~2006年逐日紫外线观测资料,分析了太阳紫外线辐射到达地面的强度指数和等级,同时分析了这些量的年、月、日变化特征,研究了影响紫外线辐射的主要的几种因子。影响紫外线辐射强度的主要因素是臭氧、地表反射率、大气气溶胶和云,这些影响因素的变化对太阳紫外线到达地面的辐射起着举足轻重的作用。     

广州市地面塌陷的形成原因与时空分布

地面塌陷是珠江三角洲城市地质灾害的主要类型之一。广州市地面塌陷灾害频繁发生,近10年来呈波动式上升趋势。其塌陷类型分为岩溶塌陷和工程地面塌陷两种,岩溶塌陷主要分布在广花盆地的花都区、白云区,工程地面塌陷主要分布在中心城区。地面塌陷灾害孕灾环境复杂、致灾因子多样,承灾体脆弱,灾害后果严重。人为因素是地面塌陷的主要诱发因素。岩溶塌陷主要是由于过量抽取地下水或矿山疏干排水、地下采空、暴雨触发所致;工程塌陷主要是人类工程行为所致,其主要致灾因子包括排水疏干与突水(突泥)作用、人工加载、人工振动、人工开挖桩基、地表渗水、地铁等地下工程盾构掘进等。     

汉江蜀河水电站库水位对岸坡稳定性的影响分析

汉江蜀河水电站属于Ⅱ等大(2)型水电站,水库的建成、运行可能对岸坡的稳定性造成一定的影响,尤其是水库蓄水后的库水位变化及与库水位变化相关的参数,对岸坡的稳定影响极大,因此弄清楚库水位变化与其相关的参数对岸坡稳定性的影响,是汉江蜀河水电站成功运营必须解决的问题之一。以地质背景为基础,结合具体坡段的岩性、结构特征等,从水库水位公式的建立,到在不同库水位的条件下,运用数值模拟对岸坡稳定性系数和相关参数的变化进行了分析评价。     

Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.